October 19, 2023 – As we enjoy the cooler temperatures of fall, it reminds us that winter is soon coming. Earler this week, the agency that manages the state’s electric grid came together to talk about it and so much more. After a record-breaking summer, there will be much to prepare the grid for ahead of the winter.
ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas told the organization’s board the Public Utilities Commission they have sent out a request to purchase enough back-up power for 600,000 homes an hour (3,000 megawatts per hour). They hope to have this deal completed by December when winter cold brings power complications.
In short, the amount of power generated in Texas is not keeping up with the state’s population and industrial growth, per Vegas.
“To build a power plant, you start the concept today and in two to four to five years depending on the type of power plant you’ll have something come online,” he said.
The types of power planted needed, per Vegas, are known as dispatchable power, the more traditional power plants like natural gas plants that can be turned on by humans and do not rely on the sun or the wind. Voters will weigh in this November on whether the state should put $10 billion towards encouraging plant construction.
It signals to the market and to the public that we have a potential problem this winter because the market has not provided the level of dispatchable resources that Texas needs,” said ERCOT Board member Bill Flores.
In the summer, the power grid’s most vulnerable time is when Texans return home from work and begin using their appliances, around 7 or 8 pm. In the winter, the grid will be most vulnerable in the mid-morning when it’s still dark outside – eliminating solar power as a resource – and Texans are beginning to wake up to use energy before they go to work.
According to an ERCOT analysis, they predict this December there’s a 4.3% chance of a controlled power outage every day around 8 AM. That chance goes up to 14.4% if there are similar conditions to last year’s December cold snap.
While the summer might feel like a distant memory, just a little over a month ago the metroplex was pushing 110 degrees in early September.
The cloud cover could impact the solar generation in the state, which ERCOT said the grid has become more reliant on than in the past. Solar helped get the state through high-demand days this summer but it might not be as helpful this winter, which is why natural gas storage and completed plant maintenance in time for winter is key.
